Daniel Goeudevert on Alte Schule: The Future of the Car Industry - Analysis, Criticism & Visions

This summary covers the episode "with Daniel Goeudevert" of the podcast "Alte Schule". The guest, Daniel Goeudevert, former top manager at Ford and VW, is known for his ability to take a holistic view of business, society, politics and technology. Far from a typical manager interview, the episode offers a profound analysis of the current upheavals, particularly in the automotive industry, but far beyond. Goeudevert, now in his mid-80s, analyzes the hectic, fragile and unpredictable nature of our times with a sharp tongue and a clear view. It is about the transformation of mobility, the role of technology, the influence of politics and the zeitgeist that permeates everything. The episode is relevant for anyone who wants to understand the deeper connections behind the headlines, especially the complex forces shaping the future of our industry and society. Goeudevert does not provide simple answers, but encourages reflection on fundamental questions.

Main insights / key messages

• The compression of time: The dominant phenomenon of our era is no longer the mastery of space (mobility in the classical sense), but the attempt to master time. This leads to an extreme acceleration, hectic pace and unpredictability in politics and business, which makes traditional thinking and planning models (such as 10-year plans) obsolete.
• Automotive industry at a crossroads: The industry is at a fundamental breaking point, comparable to the replacement of the horse by the car. However, it is clinging too tightly to improving the existing product (more horsepower, more cylinders, larger screens) instead of rethinking the actual function - mobility.
• Electric car as insufficient answer: According to Goeudevert, electrification is only an episode and not a fundamental solution for future mobility needs. It merely shifts dependencies (from oil to electricity) and does not solve the underlying systemic problems such as traffic density or resource consumption.
• Systemic inertia and short-term thinking: Both the industry (often driven by arrogance of success and engineering thinking in key figures) and politics (fixated on elections, influenced by lobbying) often act short-sightedly and inconsistently. This prevents forward-looking, sustainable strategies. Signals for necessary changes were often ignored (example: early e-car initiative at VW in the 90s).
• Data as the actual goal: Players such as Elon Musk use the electric car primarily as a vehicle for collecting huge amounts of data on user behavior. The actual business model is shifting from hardware (car) to software and data, which poses immense challenges for the traditional industry (example: agency model).
• Necessity of a paradigm shift and holistic thinking: Instead of isolated technical optimization, a "quantum leap" in thinking about mobility is needed. This requires an interdisciplinary dialogue ("round table") involving consumers, politicians (with foresight), engineers (willing to learn), social scientists, urban planners and technology experts (AI, logistics) in order to develop sustainable solutions.
• The emotional attachment to the car: Goeudevert recognizes the strong emotional and biographical connection many people have to the automobile. However, this should not obscure the fact that the role of the car must change fundamentally in order to remain relevant. There needs to be a reconciliation of tradition and necessary transformation.

Detailed topic sections

The acceleration of time and the loss of predictability

Goeudevert begins by stating that today's world is fundamentally different to the era of his active career. The predictability that used to exist (e.g. 10-year plans at Ford) has given way to extreme hecticness and unpredictability. Events happen so quickly (example: Zelensky's visit to New York, interrupted by a sudden political turn of events) that analysis and reflection are hardly possible. He argues that after mastering space (through mobility over millions of years), mankind is now trying to master the phenomenon of "time". This leads to a radical shortening of product life cycles and development times. The knowledge of older generations can hardly be transferred, as technology is developing faster than traditional learning processes allow (example: the carpenter with the laser measuring device that did not yet exist during his training). This time compression presents all players - business, politics, citizens, journalists - with immense challenges.

The automotive industry at a fundamental breaking point

According to Goeudevert, the automotive industry, especially the German one, is the world champion in perfecting an existing product. This mindset of constantly improving good things is now reaching its limits. The industry is clinging to old ways of thinking and trying to shape the future with the models of the past. Goeudevert criticizes the focus on the car as an object of ownership (status symbol) rather than as an object of use (mobility tool). This led to ever larger, heavier and more powerful vehicles (SUVs, more cylinders), which was profitable but lost sight of the actual function. He quotes Martin Heidegger on the momentum of technology, which at some point has its own aimlessness as its goal - a development that he sees manifested in the car industry. Pure engineering thinking (example: 12 cylinders are better than 8) is no longer sufficient to master the complex challenges of the future. The entire automotive system, including the closely networked supplier industry, is beginning to falter.

Electromobility: an episode, not a solution

Goeudevert is critical of the current wave of electromobility. It is not a fundamental answer to the question of future mobility, but primarily a reaction to environmental regulations and a shift in dependencies (oil to electricity, often from problematic sources). He recalls VW's own early initiatives in the early 1990s (with Nicolas Hayek and Jacques Delors) to establish a European electric city car concept including a standardized charging infrastructure. This failed due to resistance from the established industry and a lack of foresight. The subsequent introduction of e-cars was chaotic ("cart before the oxen"), with inconsistent charging plugs and a lack of infrastructure, which slowed down acceptance. For Goeudevert, e-mobility is more of a technical variation on the familiar car than a genuine paradigm shift. He sees hybrid technology (non-plug-in, as with Toyota) as a more pragmatic transition path.

The role of politics, lobbying and short-term thinking

Politicians often act inconsistently and short-sightedly, driven by election cycles and the desire for popularity (e.g. environmental promises). Decisions such as the abrupt end of e-car subsidies or unrealistic CO2 targets create uncertainty and make the economy untrustworthy. Goeudevert points out the enormous influence of lobbyists (50,000 in Brussels), who often block long-term, sensible developments (example: delay of the Clean Air Act in California). The diesel scandal is seen as a symptom of this complex interplay of political guidelines, industrial pressure to achieve feasibility and attempts to circumvent rules. He criticizes the tendency of politicians to meddle in technical details without understanding the big picture and instead calls for clear, long-term framework conditions.

Data, technology and the motives behind change

Goeudevert analyses the strategy of players such as Elon Musk. His main motivation in driving Tesla forward was not so much environmental protection, but the creation of a platform for massive data collection about users. The car becomes a rolling data collector. In combination with other platforms (such as X/Twitter, Starlink), this creates an immense concentration of power. This business model poses an existential challenge to the traditional industry, which still primarily sells hardware. Goeudevert sees the new agency model in car sales as a logical consequence of this trend: it gives the manufacturer direct access to customer data, which is valuable for product development, but also creates new dependencies. He also criticizes the current implementation of technology such as huge screens in cars that distract from driving. Such features only make sense once autonomous driving is a reality - another example of misplaced priorities ("putting horses behind the cart").

Personal reflections, visions and the analogy with horses

Goeudevert looks back on his own career, in particular his time at VW and the "power struggle" with Ferdinand Piëch. He acknowledges without envy that Piëch with his strategy (multi-brand, luxury, technical excellence) was the right man at the time to turn VW around and strengthen it financially. Goeudevert's own approach, which focused more on the environment, transportation systems and social aspects, would have failed at the time. Today, however, his ideas at the time could be more relevant. He emphasizes the importance of influences outside the purely automotive world, such as his membership of the Club of Rome or his collaboration with thinkers such as Frederic Vester ("Exit Future"). The central analogy he draws is that of the horse at the end of the 19th century. The horse could not resist being replaced. The car is facing a similar situation today. It will not disappear, but its role as the dominant means of mobility is being called into question by new technologies, changing social needs (urbanization, environmental awareness, digitalization) and political regulations (inner city restrictions, weight limits). The car is increasingly "disruptive". The emotional attachment of many people to the car ("first kiss in the car") is understandable, but should not prevent manufacturers and society from thinking rationally about its future, adapted role. A "think tank" approach is needed that brings together different disciplines and perspectives (nationalities, genders, disciplines) to find a "beautiful harmonious solution" for the transformation of mobility.

Conclusion

Daniel Goeudevert paints a complex and at times worrying picture of the present and future, particularly for the automotive industry. His central message is that incremental improvements and purely technological fixes such as electrification will not be enough to overcome the fundamental challenges. The industry and society must redefine the function of mobility in a rapidly changing environment. This requires a radical break with old ways of thinking, a departure from short-term thinking and lobbying, as well as a bold, interdisciplinary approach that takes a holistic view of technological possibilities, social needs and ecological necessities. Only in this way can the "essence of the automobile", despite its inevitable transformation, play a meaningful and positive role in the future instead of disappearing from the main stage like the horse. The discussion is an urgent appeal for reflection and proactive shaping of change.